For those of you following along, I played along with Teresa and my brother doing football picks this year. As a reminder, Jeff is the methodical, highly researched football scholar who makes picks based on specific details and week to week changes. I pick teams based on my personal feelings about the city or the mascot. I really could make all my picks for the entire season on day one. Teresa picks teams based on the sexyness of the quarterback and the pretty colors of the team. She also NEVER bets against the Jaguars.
The website we played on was one that included the point spread. I won’t be doing that next year. I hate the point spread, a win is a win and it shouldn’t matter by how much.
Here’s how it broke down:
Jeff and Teresa missed one week each. I did not.
My total points: 136
Teresa’s points: 126
Jeff’s points: 114
So if you delete one of my average weeks, Teresa and I are within a few points of each other. And we beat the crap out of the statistician. I’m not trying to rub it in but that’s real funny to me. The guy who hates football and the girl who doesn’t care about stats both made significantly better picks than the guy who knows everything. And it’s not that Jeff made bad picks, according to the website his picks were better than 69% of the rest of the players (remember, he also missed a week). Teresa was 85.7% and I was 95.7%
It kind of makes my point that football is a game of luck. In baseball and hockey the best team is decided by repeated games throughout the season, a series of playoffs including a “best of five” format and then a championship of “best of seven”. The better team comes out on top. In football, you can have one bad game, one bad play, and your entire season can come crashing down around you. Seems to me like a silly thing to put your energy into. But then, I’ve put my time into worse…
February 7th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
There are Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are statistics…….
I understand your meaning and your point of view, and you may be right, HOWEVER, three points on a graph do not a trend make and certainly would not prove your point.
All you really proved was that you and Tree picked better than Jeff did this season. You didn’t prove that the game itself was of “luck” or even that Pro football alone (which is the only place your samples came from) was a game of “luck”.
What you did prove was that you are as guilty of contriving statistics to prove a point as the ad guys and news people you despise…
::grin::
but I won’t say that outloud…..
February 7th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
GRRRRRR!!!!!!
This was a CRAZY year in football. Who would have thought the SAINTS would start the season 14-0? I’m still not convinced it is a game of luck, especially when you compare to hockey, where you take 50 shots on goal and HOPE 1 or 2 go in. This was a season where all the “great” teams who everyone expected to win, just didn’t produce what everyone thought they would. Even after certain “underdogs” kept winning, I kept betting against them just KNOWING that THIS week would be the end of their LUCKY streak, lol. The sad part, I did better than a lot of the “professional” football analysts. It was just THAT kind of year. But regardless of why, I certainly tip my hat to you and Teresa! Great job kicking my ass!
February 8th, 2010 at 1:38 am
True, I need to remember to choose my words more carefully. I never meant to say that this really proves anything. Big fan of the scientific method and all…
I could point to my 95% rating as a last ditch effort to save my argument but I’d know that the stats include all the people that registered and never filled out the game schedule or filled out a week or two and quit…
Over 63% of all stats are created to be manipulated (haha!)
But I still hold that in football it is much easier for a fluke to happen and that with the proper turn of events, any team could win. There is a lot of what some people call “luck” in football. The worst team in any game/league can beat the best team on a good day. In football, that one good day is all you need. In baseball and hockey they’d have to repeat that feat several times over eliminating any “luck” or unusual circumstances.
As for hockey, I’m not sure I’d call the % shots on goal “luck”. I’d call it a sloppy mess! But who shows up for the puck right? I wanna see #12 punch somebody in the neck!
Let me know when the next season starts, we’ll do the picks again. I’m sure our “beginner’s luck” will wash out by then. And if they’ll let me, I’ll fill out the entire season as soon as the schedule comes out. But seriously, no point spread…