Comments on: Football odds http://www.drummingbigbear.com/archives/2785 Listen close, I'll tell you a story... Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:07:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Morgan http://www.drummingbigbear.com/archives/2785/comment-page-1#comment-1768 Morgan Mon, 08 Feb 2010 05:38:29 +0000 http://www.drummingbigbear.com/?p=2785#comment-1768 True, I need to remember to choose my words more carefully. I never meant to say that this really proves anything. Big fan of the scientific method and all... I could point to my 95% rating as a last ditch effort to save my argument but I'd know that the stats include all the people that registered and never filled out the game schedule or filled out a week or two and quit... Over 63% of all stats are created to be manipulated (haha!) But I still hold that in football it is much easier for a fluke to happen and that with the proper turn of events, any team could win. There is a lot of what some people call "luck" in football. The worst team in any game/league can beat the best team on a good day. In football, that one good day is all you need. In baseball and hockey they'd have to repeat that feat several times over eliminating any "luck" or unusual circumstances. As for hockey, I'm not sure I'd call the % shots on goal "luck". I'd call it a sloppy mess! But who shows up for the puck right? I wanna see #12 punch somebody in the neck! Let me know when the next season starts, we'll do the picks again. I'm sure our "beginner's luck" will wash out by then. And if they'll let me, I'll fill out the entire season as soon as the schedule comes out. But seriously, no point spread... True, I need to remember to choose my words more carefully. I never meant to say that this really proves anything. Big fan of the scientific method and all…
I could point to my 95% rating as a last ditch effort to save my argument but I’d know that the stats include all the people that registered and never filled out the game schedule or filled out a week or two and quit…

Over 63% of all stats are created to be manipulated (haha!)

But I still hold that in football it is much easier for a fluke to happen and that with the proper turn of events, any team could win. There is a lot of what some people call “luck” in football. The worst team in any game/league can beat the best team on a good day. In football, that one good day is all you need. In baseball and hockey they’d have to repeat that feat several times over eliminating any “luck” or unusual circumstances.

As for hockey, I’m not sure I’d call the % shots on goal “luck”. I’d call it a sloppy mess! But who shows up for the puck right? I wanna see #12 punch somebody in the neck!

Let me know when the next season starts, we’ll do the picks again. I’m sure our “beginner’s luck” will wash out by then. And if they’ll let me, I’ll fill out the entire season as soon as the schedule comes out. But seriously, no point spread…

]]> By: Jeff http://www.drummingbigbear.com/archives/2785/comment-page-1#comment-1767 Jeff Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:47:26 +0000 http://www.drummingbigbear.com/?p=2785#comment-1767 GRRRRRR!!!!!! This was a CRAZY year in football. Who would have thought the SAINTS would start the season 14-0? I'm still not convinced it is a game of luck, especially when you compare to hockey, where you take 50 shots on goal and HOPE 1 or 2 go in. This was a season where all the "great" teams who everyone expected to win, just didn't produce what everyone thought they would. Even after certain "underdogs" kept winning, I kept betting against them just KNOWING that THIS week would be the end of their LUCKY streak, lol. The sad part, I did better than a lot of the "professional" football analysts. It was just THAT kind of year. But regardless of why, I certainly tip my hat to you and Teresa! Great job kicking my ass! GRRRRRR!!!!!!

This was a CRAZY year in football. Who would have thought the SAINTS would start the season 14-0? I’m still not convinced it is a game of luck, especially when you compare to hockey, where you take 50 shots on goal and HOPE 1 or 2 go in. This was a season where all the “great” teams who everyone expected to win, just didn’t produce what everyone thought they would. Even after certain “underdogs” kept winning, I kept betting against them just KNOWING that THIS week would be the end of their LUCKY streak, lol. The sad part, I did better than a lot of the “professional” football analysts. It was just THAT kind of year. But regardless of why, I certainly tip my hat to you and Teresa! Great job kicking my ass!

]]> By: Wade http://www.drummingbigbear.com/archives/2785/comment-page-1#comment-1765 Wade Sun, 07 Feb 2010 20:25:59 +0000 http://www.drummingbigbear.com/?p=2785#comment-1765 There are Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are statistics....... I understand your meaning and your point of view, and you may be right, HOWEVER, three points on a graph do not a trend make and certainly would not prove your point. All you really proved was that you and Tree picked better than Jeff did this season. You didn't prove that the game itself was of "luck" or even that Pro football alone (which is the only place your samples came from) was a game of "luck". What you did prove was that you are as guilty of contriving statistics to prove a point as the ad guys and news people you despise... ::grin:: but I won't say that outloud..... There are Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are statistics…….

I understand your meaning and your point of view, and you may be right, HOWEVER, three points on a graph do not a trend make and certainly would not prove your point.

All you really proved was that you and Tree picked better than Jeff did this season. You didn’t prove that the game itself was of “luck” or even that Pro football alone (which is the only place your samples came from) was a game of “luck”.

What you did prove was that you are as guilty of contriving statistics to prove a point as the ad guys and news people you despise…
::grin::
but I won’t say that outloud…..

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